Every farmer knows the feeling of planting in an uncertain season. You do your homework, watch the sky, and keep going anyway.
A new report from the Ontario Chamber of Commerce suggests many Ontario businesses are doing much the same thing right now.
The Ontario Strong Paradox: Leadership Amidst Uncertainty is the Ontario Chamber of Commerce’s 2026 Trade and Tariff Survey Report, shared with us by our friends at the Woodstock Chamber of Commerce. It draws on responses from 851 businesses across the province, gathered between July 27 and August 17. That window was a busy one for trade news. It included the U.S. decision not to extend CUSMA and fresh threats of 50 per cent duties on nearly $20 billion USD of Canadian goods. It also included news that Ontario was leading the country in job creation.
The result is a story of businesses that are anxious but adapting, and a little more confident than when the year began.
Confidence is up, but cautious
Confidence in Ontario’s economic outlook has climbed from 23 per cent in December 2025 to 34 per cent this August. Closer to home, 51 per cent of businesses feel confident about their own organization’s outlook. Owners tend to trust what they can see from their own front door.
The picture isn’t all sunshine. A plurality (44 per cent) still lack confidence in the broader economy, and 57 per cent expect tariffs, trade policy, and uncertainty to hold back their investment or expansion plans. Size matters too. Half of micro-sized businesses (fewer than ten employees) said they were not at all confident in Ontario’s outlook, compared with just 9 per cent of large employers. In a region built on small and family-run businesses, that gap is worth noticing.
What tariffs are doing on the ground
The survey asked how businesses are responding to U.S. trade policy, and the answers are practical.
- 23 per cent have raised prices.
- 19 per cent have reduced exports to, or imports from, the U.S.
- 18 per cent have focused more on Canadian customers, diversified their suppliers, or absorbed costs to protect customer relationships.
- 14 per cent have reduced their workforce.
- 13 per cent are marketing to international customers outside the U.S.
- 12 per cent are investing in productivity, equipment, or technology to stay competitive.
Only a small share have considered relocating or closing. At the same time, 22 per cent said they haven’t been materially affected, and 33 per cent said access to skilled cross-border talent under existing trade rules remains critical to their business.
Some industries feel it more than others. Accommodation and food services (75 per cent), manufacturing (74 per cent), wholesale trade (72 per cent), and construction (71 per cent) reported the highest expectations of negative impacts on investment plans. Those are sectors with a strong presence across Oxford County.
What it means for Southwestern Ontario
The regional numbers matter for us. Businesses in Southwestern Ontario reported the weakest sentiment about the province’s outlook, with 30 per cent feeling confident, compared with 34 per cent provincewide. The report ties this to the region’s trade-exposed sectors and cross-border industrial footprint. The regional jobless rate for 2026 is forecast at an average of 7.4 per cent, and 57 per cent of businesses expect trade uncertainty to hurt their investment plans.
There’s real resilience in the data, too. Forty-nine per cent of Southwestern Ontario businesses are confident in their own organization’s outlook, and 39 per cent are diversifying to suppliers or markets beyond the U.S. and Mexico, slightly ahead of the provincial average of 38 per cent. The report credits strong local fundamentals and diversification for driving confidence, even as cost pressures weigh heavily. The leading regional responses so far have been raising prices and absorbing costs to protect margins.
The report also points to trouble spots further west. In Windsor-Sarnia, 40 per cent of businesses plan to reduce headcount if U.S. trade disputes remain unresolved, a reminder of how closely linked our regional economy is to cross-border supply chains.
Looking beyond the usual markets
Across the province, diversification is gaining traction. The Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab found that exports to non-U.S. destinations hit a record high in July, accounting for nearly a third of all Canadian exports. Wholesale trade (72 per cent), manufacturing (51 per cent), and retail (51 per cent) are leading the way, and larger businesses are moving faster than smaller ones.
The report is clear, though, that diversification isn’t a replacement for a strong North American relationship. It highlights the Ontario-Michigan partnership, worth more than $80 billion USD in annual two-way trade, as one of the most integrated economic relationships on the continent. The aim is to open more doors, not close existing ones.
What businesses are asking for
Southwestern Ontario businesses named tax incentives or deferrals, investment grants, clearer and more stable trade rules, and better market intelligence as the supports they need most. Across the province, the OCC is calling on governments to improve competitiveness, help businesses reach new markets (including by removing barriers to trade and labour mobility between provinces), and invest in the trade corridors that underpin Ontario’s prosperity.
One recommendation stood out to us. The report names chambers of commerce, economic development organizations, and regional partnerships as key connectors, helping to identify barriers, bring people together, and support diversification. That’s work we care about deeply here in Rural Oxford, and it’s why partnerships with organizations like the Woodstock Chamber of Commerce matter so much.
The takeaway
Resilience isn’t the same as immunity. But the story in this report is of businesses that are learning, adjusting, and still looking for ways to grow. If you’re an entrepreneur or business owner in Rural Oxford, we’d love to be a resource as you plan your next step. Reach out any time, and take a look at the full report to see how the findings might apply to your own business.
Read the full report: https://occ.ca/our-publications/ontario-strong-paradox-2026-trade-and-tariff-survey-report/
Source: The Ontario Strong Paradox: Leadership Amidst Uncertainty, 2026 Trade and Tariff Survey Report, by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, with research partners Leger and BMO. Our thanks to the Ontario Chamber of Commerce for the research, and to the Woodstock Chamber of Commerce for sharing it with the community.